Odds of winning Powerball
The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292,201,338 per $2 play: you must match all five white balls, drawn from 69, and the red Powerball, drawn from 26. There are exactly 292,201,338 possible combinations, so covering every one would take $584,402,676 in tickets. The odds of winning any prize are 1 in 24.87, mostly from the $4 prizes.
| Match | Prize | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Powerball | Jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338 | 0.00000034% |
| 5 | $1,000,000 | 1 in 11,688,054 | 0.0000086% |
| 4 + Powerball | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 | 0.00011% |
| 4 | $100 | 1 in 36,525 | 0.0027% |
| 3 + Powerball | $100 | 1 in 14,494 | 0.0069% |
| 3 | $7 | 1 in 579.76 | 0.17% |
| 2 + Powerball | $7 | 1 in 701.33 | 0.14% |
| 1 + Powerball | $4 | 1 in 91.98 | 1.1% |
| Powerball only | $4 | 1 in 38.32 | 2.6% |
Odds from the Powerball prize chart. Prizes without Power Play; in California, prizes below the jackpot are pari-mutuel.
Odds of winning Mega Millions
The Mega Millions jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336 per $5 play: five white balls from 70 and the gold Mega Ball from 24. Every play includes a random multiplier from 2X to 10X that applies to all prizes except the jackpot, which is why the prizes below are ranges. The odds of winning any prize work out to about 1 in 23.
| Match | Prize | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Mega Ball | Jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 | 0.00000034% |
| 5 | $2,000,000–$10,000,000 | 1 in 12,629,232 | 0.0000079% |
| 4 + Mega Ball | $20,000–$100,000 | 1 in 893,761 | 0.00011% |
| 4 | $1,000–$5,000 | 1 in 38,859 | 0.0026% |
| 3 + Mega Ball | $400–$2,000 | 1 in 13,965 | 0.0072% |
| 3 | $20–$100 | 1 in 607 | 0.16% |
| 2 + Mega Ball | $20–$100 | 1 in 665 | 0.15% |
| 1 + Mega Ball | $14–$70 | 1 in 86 | 1.2% |
| Mega Ball only | $10–$50 | 1 in 35 | 2.9% |
Odds and prizes from Mega Millions; prize ranges run from the 2X to the 10X multiplier.
For a prize you have already won, the Mega Millions payout calculator estimates federal and state tax on your payment.
Powerball vs Mega Millions odds
The jackpot odds are almost the same: Powerball's are 1.006 times longer. The bigger difference is price — $2 against $5 — and what the prizes below the jackpot return.
| Powerball | Mega Millions | Millionaire for Life | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ticket price | $2 | $5 | $5 |
| Top prize odds | 1 in 292,201,338 | 1 in 290,472,336 | 1 in 22,910,580 |
| Odds of any prize | 1 in 24.87 | 1 in 23 | 1 in 8.47 |
| Expected return from prizes below the top prize | $0.32 | $1.12 | $1.86 |
| Expected return per ticket, current jackpot, before tax | $0.95 | $1.57 | $2.64 |
Expected returns count the jackpot at its current cash value ($183.1 Million for Powerball, $131.1 Million for Mega Millions) and Millionaire for Life's top two prizes at their cash options, before tax and assuming no one shares the jackpot.
Millionaire for Life odds
Millionaire for Life's top prize of $1 million a year for life has odds of 1 in 22,910,580, about 13 times better than the Powerball jackpot, because the game draws five numbers from 58 and one Millionaire Ball from 5. The prize does not grow, so its expected value stays the same every night. Latest results are on the Millionaire for Life winning numbers page.
| Match | Prize | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Millionaire Ball | $1,000,000 a year for life | 1 in 22,910,580 | 0.0000044% |
| 5 | $100,000 a year for life | 1 in 5,727,645 | 0.000017% |
| 4 + Millionaire Ball | $7,500 | 1 in 86,455 | 0.0012% |
| 4 | $500 | 1 in 21,614 | 0.0046% |
| 3 + Millionaire Ball | $250 | 1 in 1,663 | 0.06% |
| 3 | $50 | 1 in 415.65 | 0.24% |
| 2 + Millionaire Ball | $25 | 1 in 97.80 | 1% |
| 2 | $8 | 1 in 24.45 | 4.1% |
| 1 + Millionaire Ball | $8 | 1 in 15.65 | 6.4% |
Expected value: what a ticket returns on average
Expected value is each prize multiplied by its chance of being won, added up over every prize. For Powerball at the current jackpot, a $2 ticket returns about $0.95 on average before tax: $0.63 from the jackpot and $0.32 from everything else. After federal tax on the jackpot it is about $0.71. Change the jackpot or the number of tickets in the calculator above.
For the expected return to reach the ticket price, the Powerball jackpot's cash value would have to be about $490.9 Million before tax — and much more after tax, because the jackpot is taxed at 37%. Even then, a jackpot that large draws so many tickets that it is often shared, which cuts each winner's share.
Why the lottery loses money over time
Lotteries allocate only part of ticket revenue to prizes. Drawings are independent, but distinct combinations in the same drawing are mutually exclusive jackpot outcomes. No number pattern changes a combination’s odds. For 292,201,338 Powerball combinations, 100 distinct combinations in one drawing have a chance of 100 divided by that total; duplicate combinations do not improve the chance.
If you do win, see what to do if you win the lottery and how much the Powerball jackpot is worth after taxes.
Common questions
What are the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot?
1 in 292,201,338 for each $2 play. You need all five white balls and the Powerball. The odds of winning any Powerball prize are 1 in 24.87.
Is it easier to win Powerball or Mega Millions?
The jackpot odds are nearly identical: 1 in 292,201,338 for Powerball and 1 in 290,472,336 for Mega Millions. Millionaire for Life's top prize is far easier at 1 in 22,910,580, but it is a fixed prize, not a growing jackpot.
How does the number of tickets affect jackpot probability?
Ten distinct combinations in the same drawing cover 10 of 292,201,338 Powerball outcomes. Duplicate combinations do not cover additional outcomes. Ticket cost and total expected return scale with the number of plays.
What does the break-even cash value mean?
It is the jackpot cash value at which expected prize return equals ticket price, before tax and assuming a sole jackpot winner. For Powerball it is about $490.9 Million. It is a mathematical threshold, not a prediction of a ticket’s result.